{"id":2153,"date":"2021-06-24T05:05:26","date_gmt":"2021-06-24T04:05:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/codir.net\/?p=2153"},"modified":"2021-06-24T05:05:27","modified_gmt":"2021-06-24T04:05:27","slug":"irans-next-president-ebrahim-raisi-and-the-iran-nuclear-deal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/codir.net\/?p=2153","title":{"rendered":"Iran\u2019s next President: Ebrahim Raisi and the Iran nuclear deal"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Published by House of Commons Library<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On 18 June 2021, Iran elected Ebrahim Raisi as its next President. A conservative hardliner, with vastly different views to outgoing reformist President, Hassan Rouhani, his election has potentially far-reaching implications for change in Iran\u2019s domestic and foreign policies. He will take office in early August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This Insight looks at the election result and examines what effect Ebrahim Raisi could have on the Iran nuclear deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Who is Ebrahim Raisi?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ebrahim Raisi is&nbsp;currently&nbsp;the Chief Justice of Iran,&nbsp;an ultra-conservative&nbsp;hardliner&nbsp;and&nbsp;staunch ally, and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.chathamhouse.org\/2021\/06\/ebrahim-raisi-irans-proxy-president?utm_source=facebook.com&amp;utm_medium=organic-social&amp;utm_campaign=iran&amp;utm_content=iran-election-raisi&amp;fbclid=IwAR3TIw_caMicdzmzq5XUUWCNRdaT18DQQjlVpGUgqioGt5qtoLQ3ZZ2nDs0\">potential successor<\/a>,&nbsp;of Iran\u2019s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah&nbsp;Khamanei.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Raisi has risen the ranks of Iran\u2019s judicial system, notably serving&nbsp;as&nbsp;Deputy&nbsp;Prosecutor General of Tehran&nbsp;(1985-1994),&nbsp;as&nbsp;Deputy Chief Justice (2004-2014) and Prosecutor General (2014-2016).&nbsp;He ran against Rouhani in the&nbsp;2017 presidential election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Human rights groups have criticised Raisi for the judiciary\u2019s role&nbsp;in the repression of Iranian society.&nbsp;Specifically, he is accused of&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hrw.org\/news\/2019\/03\/07\/iran-serious-rights-violator-lead-judiciary\">presiding&nbsp;over&nbsp;the&nbsp;execution of thousands of political prisoners<\/a>&nbsp;in 1988.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2019,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/home.treasury.gov\/news\/press-releases\/sm824\">the US&nbsp;placed him&nbsp;under&nbsp;sanctions<\/a>&nbsp;as a senior&nbsp;state official&nbsp;responsible for&nbsp;\u201cadvancing the regime\u2019s domestic and foreign oppression\u201d.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Favoured candidate in the presidential election<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Raisi\u2019s election was widely considered a foregone conclusion after&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/5\/25\/irans-guardian-council-disqualifies-most-presidential-candidates\">585 moderate\/reformist candidates<\/a>, including Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri, and popular conservative hardliners such as former President Mamhoud Ahmadinejad and Ali Larijani, the former speaker of Parliament, were barred from running by Iran\u2019s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/irandataportal.syr.edu\/the-guardian-council\">Guardian Council<\/a>. Three of the remaining seven candidates also stepped aside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Poll results\u00a0(per cent)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Ebrahim Raisi- 61.9&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li><li>Void ballots \u2013 14.4&nbsp;<\/li><li>Mohsen Rezaei-&nbsp;11.8&nbsp;<\/li><li>Abdolnasser&nbsp;Hemmati-&nbsp;8.4&nbsp;<\/li><li>Amir-Hossein&nbsp;Ghazizadeh&nbsp;Hashemi \u2013 3.5&nbsp;<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Believing that the election had&nbsp;been engineered in Mr&nbsp;Raisi\u2019s&nbsp;favour,&nbsp;turnout was a record low&nbsp;at&nbsp;48.8 per cent and&nbsp;over&nbsp;4&nbsp;million people were&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/iranintl.com\/en\/iran\/final-iran-vote-results-show-lowest-turnout-four-decades\">reported&nbsp;to have spoilt their ballots<\/a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>His election now gives Iran\u2019s hardliners control across all functions of government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The status of the nuclear deal\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since the United&nbsp;States&nbsp;withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA \u2013&nbsp;the Iran nuclear deal) and reimposed sanctions in 2018, Iran has increasingly violated&nbsp;the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/commonslibrary.parliament.uk\/research-briefings\/cbp-7178\/\">terms of the agreement<\/a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Iran has&nbsp;breached limits on its stockpile of&nbsp;enriched uranium,&nbsp;installed&nbsp;prohibited&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/fas.org\/issues\/nonproliferation-counterproliferation\/nuclear-fuel-cycle\/uranium-enrichment-gas-centrifuge-technology\/centrifuge-works\/\">advanced centrifuges<\/a>&nbsp;and begun enriching uranium to<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sipri.org\/commentary\/essay\/2021\/why-iran-producing-60-cent-enriched-uranium\">&nbsp;60 per cent<\/a>, significantly in excess of the 3.67 per cent agreed in the JCPOA.&nbsp;Weapons-grade&nbsp;uranium is enriched to 90 per cent. Iran&nbsp;has also&nbsp;reduced its&nbsp;cooperation&nbsp;with the International Atomic Energy Agency).&nbsp;The time it could take Iran to develop nuclear weapons&nbsp;is currently&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.armscontrol.org\/blog\/2021-06\/p4-1-iran-nuclear-deal-alert\">estimated at a few&nbsp;months<\/a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since April 2021, negotiators have been discussing restoring the JCPOA, and a return to the agreement by the US. Although progress has been made,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.armscontrol.org\/blog\/2021-06\/p4-1-iran-nuclear-deal-alert\">significant challenges remain<\/a>, specifically relating to Iran\u2019s recent nuclear advancements and its&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/commonslibrary.parliament.uk\/research-briefings\/cbp-8220\/\">broader foreign policies<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>How could\u00a0Raisi\u2019s\u00a0election\u00a0affect\u00a0the Iran nuclear deal?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s unclear whether an agreement&nbsp;on the JCPOA&nbsp;will be reached before President Rouhani&nbsp;leaves office.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All parties have indicated a willingness to work with Raisi to renew the agreement should talks continue. How the US will square the longer-term dilemma of potentially agreeing a deal with a person under US sanctions is unclear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a conservative hardliner, Raisi is expected to adopt a much tougher stance toward the West than his reformist predecessor. Raisi supports renewal of the nuclear deal but only if it serves \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/world-middle-east-57552639\">Iran\u2019s national interests<\/a>\u201d. A return to the JCPOA is seen as&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/iran-hardliners-set-retain-hold-economy-foreign-policy-after-vote-2021-06-16\/\">necessary to ease economic hardship in Iran<\/a>. However, Raisi has also made clear that all sanctions must be lifted and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.iiss.org\/blogs\/research-paper\/2021\/04\/iran-missiles-uavs-proliferation\">Iran\u2019s ballistic missile programme<\/a>&nbsp;and regional activities, which are of concern to the West, will not be part of negotiations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Raisi\u2019s&nbsp;views are closely aligned with&nbsp;Ayatollah&nbsp;Khamanei, who&nbsp;will have the&nbsp;ultimate say on&nbsp;reengagement&nbsp;with the JCPOA.&nbsp;As&nbsp;Dr Raz&nbsp;Zimmt, writing for the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/iransource\/with-a-raisi-presidency-would-the-iran-nuclear-deal-remain-on-the-table\/?mkt_tok=NjU5LVdaWC0wNzUAAAF9lkVuC0ybJdHv1g3tDxm9_4d2G1Oa6wzQmVqr6GWPITiWuxx1h-NR81oeFdrOqCJbYl0Kkjt8Y4iwjMl6fyAfpXgp5qbZ4y36Dm-pM_M\">Atlantic Council&nbsp;<\/a>notes: \u201cthe future of Iran\u2019s approach to the JCPOA will depend mainly on Khamenei himself rather than the identity of the next president\u201d.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class=\"share-this\">\n                    <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/share\"\nclass=\"twitter-share-button\"\ndata-count=\"horizontal\">Tweet<\/a>\n                    <script type=\"text\/javascript\"\nsrc=\"http:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\"><\/script>\n                    <div class=\"facebook-share-button\">\n                        <iframe\nsrc=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/plugins\/like.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fcodir.net%2F%3Fp%3D2153&amp;layout=button_count&amp;show_faces=false&amp;width=200&amp;action=like&amp;colorscheme=light&amp;height=21\"\nscrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"border:none;\noverflow:hidden; width:200px; height:21px;\"\nallowTransparency=\"true\"><\/iframe>\n                    <\/div>\n                <\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Published by House of Commons Library On 18 June 2021, Iran elected Ebrahim Raisi as its next President. A conservative hardliner, with vastly different views to outgoing reformist President, Hassan Rouhani, his election has potentially far-reaching implications for change in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2154,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-features","category-news-analysis"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/codir.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2153","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/codir.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/codir.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/codir.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/codir.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2153"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/codir.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2153\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2155,"href":"https:\/\/codir.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2153\/revisions\/2155"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/codir.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2154"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/codir.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2153"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/codir.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2153"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/codir.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2153"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}