{"id":2602,"date":"2022-03-04T07:55:09","date_gmt":"2022-03-04T07:55:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/codir.net\/?p=2602"},"modified":"2022-03-04T08:00:02","modified_gmt":"2022-03-04T08:00:02","slug":"ukraine-sparks-eu-us-rush-to-iran-deal%ef%bf%bc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/codir.net\/?p=2602","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine sparks EU, US rush to Iran deal"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

There is a palpable sense of urgency in Washington to clinch a deal in Vienna, as the advanced centrifuges in the Iranian nuclear installations are narrowing the so-called breakout time by the dayMarch 01, 2022<\/a> by <\/a>M.K. Bhadrakumar<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran\u2019s president Ebrahim Raisi telephoned Russian president Vladimir Putin to discuss NATO expansion and Iran nuclear issue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will the US-Russia confrontation over NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) expansion and the situation around Ukraine derail the Iran nuclear negotiations in Vienna?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Apparently, the Iran issue has been pushed somewhat from the center of world attention lately. But that is a matter of optics only. The US is manifestly keen to let it be known to Moscow and Tehran that it would continue to engage with Moscow on issues \u201cfundamental to our national security interest,\u201d such as the Iran nuclear deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the state department spokesman Ned Price put it in the weekend: \u201cThe fact that Russia has now invaded Ukraine should not give Iran the green light to develop a nuclear weapon.\u201d Price\u2019s remarks followed Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi\u2019s call with Russian president<\/a> Vladimir Putin the previous day where he reportedly told the Russian leader that \u201cNATO expansion to the east is tense,\u201d emphasizing that the alliance\u2019s continuing eastward expansion would pose a serious threat to the stability and security of independent countries in different regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Raisi went on to support Russia, saying, \u201cI hope what is happening is for the benefit of the nations in the region.\u201d The Russian readout noted that Putin spoke about \u201cdifficulties in reaching a settlement in the Middle East.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the nuclear talks as such, Putin stressed the importance of continuing consultations between Russia and Iran. The Russian stance is very supportive of Iran but Moscow shown willingness in a constructive spirit to be a mediator in the absence of any direct contact between the Iranian and American sides at the Vienna talks. Washington knows that it is expedient to leverage Moscow\u2019s influence in Tehran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On its part, though, Moscow is well aware of the primacy Tehran attaches to its strategic autonomy and, second, that this is a crucial national security issue for Iran where there is not much wriggle room anyway for negotiators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is a palpable sense of urgency in Washington to clinch a deal in Vienna, as the advanced centrifuges in the Iranian nuclear installations are narrowing the so-called breakout time by the day. In the weekend, Iran Supreme National Security Council secretary Ali Shamkhani spoke with UK national security adviser Stephen Lovegrove, and Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian had a call from EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell on the issue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some of the Western parties in the Iran talks have said that the negotiations would end this week. To quote the French chief negotiator Philippe Errera: \u201cWe will continue until we reach an agreement or announce the collapse of negotiations next week.\u201d That is to say, it looks like the sides are very close, but nothing is final until everything is agreed upon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran\u2019s foreign ministry said on Sunday that \u201c97-98 percent\u201d of a draft agreement is ready but three key issues remain that the West has not agreed with. Apparently, the sticking points include Iran\u2019s demand for the lifting of more US sanctions than Washington is willing to accept, which includes what could well be a deal breaker, namely, the designation of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which comes under the Supreme Leader, as a terrorist organization by the Trump administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The point is, IRGC has an extended reach in Iran\u2019s economy and armed forces and intelligence services and its commanders hold high-ranking positions in president Raisi\u2019s government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another vexed issue is Iran\u2019s demand for firm guarantee from Washington that a future US government will not renege on the deal. The Biden administration maintains that constitutionally it cannot provide such a guarantee on behalf of a future president, as the agreement in question is not a treaty to be ratified by the Senate. But Iran is, understandably, apprehensive that there could be a replay of the bitter experience from Donald Trump if there is a regime change in Washington in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Third, Iran demands that the file regarding International Atomic Energy Agency\u2019s case about Tehran\u2019s nuclear work should be conclusively closed lest the US uses its clout with the UN watchdog to keep the issue alive to gain leverage in future and put pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will be crucial, as Iran\u2019s negotiator returned to Vienna on Sunday following consultations in Tehran. Things could go either way. It\u2019s unlikely that Iran would budge on its key demands while the Biden administration doesn\u2019t seem to have courage to take bold decisions that may prove costly in the domestic politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is where the Russian mediation could have helped. The fact that Europeans frantically reached out to Tehran in the weekend shows that their lines of communication with Moscow have snapped. The big question is: Can the East-West crisis derail the Iran negotiations?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bottom line is that the US and European countries underestimate that lifting of sanctions is not just an economic issue for Tehran. Iran\u2019s uniqueness as a developing country has all along been that it has a worldview, which is a legacy of its 1979 revolution. Iran situates the nuclear deal in its strategic calculus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran\u2019s experience with the Western powers in general and the US in particular also doesn\u2019t help instill confidence. Iran faced betrayal, back-stabbing and outright bullying all through the decades since the revolution, including an eight-year old war imposed on it by Saddam Hussein who, instigated by Washington to destroy the Islamic regime, used chemical weapons given to him by the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a declassified 1991 report, the CIA modestly estimated that Iran had suffered more than 50,000 casualties from Iraq\u2019s use of chemical weapons, though current estimates are that much more than 10,000 people might have perished, and the long-term effects continue to cause damage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How can Iran possibly forget that and so much more? It comes as no surprise that Iran has sided with Russia and blamed the US and NATO for the current crisis over Ukraine, knowing fully well that it was risking the ire of Western powers. The fact that the EU foreign policy chief Borrell frantically reached out to Tehran in the weekend shows disquiet in Brussels that, despite the daily fulminations against Russia and Putin by his superior heading the EU Commission Ursula von der Leyen, they are missing Moscow\u2019s active role as mediator.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is going to be a recurring pattern in the world order and the international system \u2014 be it on North Korea, Syria or Afghanistan. For a large number of countries in the world in all continents \u2014 except Europe, perhaps \u2014 the disbandment of the Soviet Union was a regrettable event of colossal magnitude as they lost a great buffer or firewall safeguarding them from the bullying by Western countries, many of them being erstwhile colonial powers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran\u2019s concern as a stakeholder in the outcome of the titanic struggle playing out in Ukraine with far-reaching global ramifications for decades to come is quite understandable \u2014 right in the middle of its negotiations with European powers when things seem to be coming to a head in Vienna this week.<\/p>\n

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