Within the ruling elite of the Islamic Republic of Iran there are many competing factions and views on how to tackle the economic, social, cultural and political crisis in all levels of society.  The elites hold on power is fragile relying on widespread oppression, in addition, there are deep divisions in the leadership on how to stand up to the escalating military and economic threats from the United States and supported by the UK.  Currently tit for tat quasi-military manoeuvres impose on the world, what is in effect an economic blockade of Iran.  The tensions and dangers of this situation are self-evident.

Currently in British politics the issue of Brexit is paramount, with many shades of opinion on how the issue will be resolved.  However, as this matter unfolds the question of peace or war in the Middle East should not be overlooked.  Today the overriding issue in world politics is the potential catastrophe of a war on Iran and the probability that such a war would engulf the entire planet.

US President Trump led the way by his unilateral decision to withdraw from the international nuclear deal with Iran known as the JCPOA.  He has also threatened to “end Iran”, or “obliterate”, the country of over 83,000000 people.  In response the theocratic leadership in Iran has increased the nations development of enriched nuclear fuel.

In Britain there has been a mixed response to the growing crisis, with the government and military establishment supporting Trumps military escalation through the deployment in the Persian Gulf of advanced weaponry, including WMD and specialist forces.

On the other hand, the UK along with other West European countries has opposed Trumps decision to end support for the JCPOA.  However, the US has extended its economic boycott of Iran to include any Western companies which seek to trade to with Iran in order to aggravate the economic crisis and the further impoverishment of the people.

It is this cocktail of response and counter response which produces a clear and present danger to World peace.

In this dangerous mix it should be made clear however, that Iran’s enrichment of uranium does not give it access to nuclear weapons as many in the American administration would have us believe.

The Iranian leadership is desperately seeking the means to broaden its energy resources and under international law, including the nuclear non-proliferation agreements and the JCPOA itself, it is allowed to do so.  Furthermore, the international technical consensus has concluded that the Iranian regime is far away from achieving the capacity to build and launch nuclear weapons.

But the Iranian government above all is desperate as it seeks to face down its population as the acute economic crisis brought about by its own mismanagement of the economy and its reliance on the suppression of workers’ rights and liberties, is reinforced by decades of US enforced economic sanctions.

The government in Tehran has also been desperate to preserve the nuclear deal in the hope that it could provide an economic lifeline as the pressures from below and the resistance of its population continues to rise.

In this crisis, as much as the US would like to see regime change in Iran, it realises that despite Iran’s internal tensions, the country would not be a military pushover.  Military action, either by design or accident would make recent US led wars in Afghanistan and Iraq seem quiet by comparison.  Moreover, a war against Iran in the Persian Gulf could escalate very quickly into an economic and military conflict of global proportions.

The US leadership and the Iranian dictatorship are in their own ways complicit in creating this threat of World war.  A danger which would threaten to overshadow all domestic political concerns.

CODIR opposes any US attempt to manipulate the situation for regime change in Iran, which contravene the UN Charter and will be disastrous for the people in Iran and the region.  It believes that it is solely the right of the Iranian people to determine the future of their country.

The US should end its aggression against Iran.  In Britain we should demand and give full support to the Iranian people in their struggle for democracy and human rights.  An end to warmongering and an increase in solidarity with Iran’s workers, women’s organisations and students would provide a firm basis for peace in the Gulf and reverse the threat of World war.